Turmoil in wild bird industry

While bird-loving consumers look for novel ways to protect peanuts from hungry squirrels, we in the industry are looking to Argentina for a reliable supply of this versatile and popular feed. However, the peanut harvest in Argentina has been mixed at best, with suppliers making very limited offers. Stocks in the UK and Rotterdam are now very low, and international prospects paint a gloomy outlook for supplies between summer and winter. China and the USA are still pricing themselves out of the market, while South African peanut imports into the EU look limited. Brazil is not permitted to ship peanuts with Aflatoxin outside edible standards, while nobody in the UK will consider importing the summer Java crop, due to Aflatoxin risks. With Indian peanuts not really available, this puts added pressure on Argentina’s crop and we need suppliers to be making more offers. With regard to other staples of the wild bird industry, such as wheat and maize, the full international picture continues to return to the global economic situation. In particular, price fluctuations are being led by the USA, where another round of quantitative easing could soon encourage fund managers back into commodities such as maize and wheat. Confusions and reactions We were warned by a report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that an over-supply of maize stocks was on its way, and then the projected 2011/12 maize ending stock figures were far below expectations. However, if we examine the figures closely, an interesting story emerges. The high supply figures were based on increased acreage revealed in June’s USDA report – some take this with a pinch of salt given the torrential rains that later hit states including Montana, Minnesota and the Dakotas. USDA also pointed to increased domestic usage as well as a rise in demand for maize for ethanol production, in spite of a question mark remaining over financial breaks on their way for blenders. Then there’s the China conundrum. The USDA increased export projections by just 2.5 million tonnes, allowing for additional Chinese purchasing to the tune of 2 million. Yet China has already bought more than that and there are indications that purchasing could rise to 10 million. Finally, USDA’s yield forecast remains the third highest on record and does not allow for the impacts of severe weather conditions – while at the same time, traders have been reintroducing a weather premium into prices to account for heat and drought fears…